Prime Minister Mark Carney’s 2025 budget, his first in office, forecasts total federal program spending over the next four years will be $67.6 billion higher than what was planned by former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and his expected deficits are double the Trudeau government’s projections, finds a new study published today by the Fraser Institute, an independent, non-partisan Canadian public policy think-tank.
“During the 2025 election, the Carney government promised to take a very different approach to federal finances than its predecessor, but based on his first budget, spending is higher and deficits are double than what even Trudeau planned to spend, which substantially worsens the state of federal finances,” said Jake Fuss, director of fiscal studies at the Fraser Institute and co-author of the study.
Comparing Federal Fiscal Plans: Is the Carney Government Truly Taking a Different Approach than Its Predecessor? compares the fiscal plans presented in the 2024 Fall Economic Statement (the Trudeau government’s last fiscal release) and in Budget 2025 (the Carney government’s first fiscal release) based on overall revenues, spending, total deficits, and total debt accumulation.
From 2024/25 to 2029/30, the Carney government plans to spend $47.8 billion in additional program spending above what the Trudeau government projected over the same five-year period.
Crucially, the Carney government plans to run combined deficits of $321.7 billion from 2025/26 to 2029/30. That is more than double what the Trudeau government had planned over the same period ($154.4 billion).
By 2029/30, the Carney government projects total federal debt will reach $2.9 trillion—$266.4 billion more than what the Trudeau government planned to add in debt.
“Rather than take a new approach, the Carney government clearly plans to continue, and even exacerbate the same failed fiscal policies of his predecessor, which does not match the rhetoric Canadians heard on the campaign,” said Grady Munro, senior policy analyst at the Fraser Institute and co-author.